• Tim Ellis

Not One Seat announces second wave of Unity candidates

Updated: Aug 23

Our first wave of endorsements reflected ridings where vote history, trends, and polling all converged to indicate very clear endorsements.


For our second wave, we faced a trickier landscape. In some, polling was more diverse. In others, recent vote history was more scattered. These ridings were tougher to call, and as a result, we decided to wait until late-breaking campaign trends could be accounted for.


However, with just eight days to go until election day, it is our assessment that the opposition parties are committed to a course of attacking each other rather than taking the collaborative effort that would truly shake up the race. As such, we do not anticipate current trends changing - and are therefore ready to make more endorsements. Here are our second wave of Unity candidates:


Scarborough Centre: Mazhar Shafiq (Liberal)

A competitive riding, Scarborough Centre has been a tough race to call - but recent trends in data captured by our model have begun to consolidate behind Mazhar Shafiq as the best positioned to defeat Ford's PC here. But what tipped us over the edge was the campaign's field operation - one of the largest and most organized ground campaigns in the province, reflecting the candidate's deep community connection and the determination of his campaign team, as well as the grassroots energy this bold progressive inspires. We are proud to endorse Mazhar Shafiq as our Unity candidate in Scarborough Centre.


Scarborough-Agincourt: Soo Wong (Liberal)


In 2018, the Liberals came in second in Scarborough Agincourt despite their province-wide vote collapse. Since then, their position has only improved - and our data clearly shows Soo Wong best positioned to overtake Ford's PCs here. Soo Wong is facing a challenging but winnable battle, and we strongly encourage all progressives and opposition supporters in Scarborough-Agincourt to unite the vote behind her and take this seat from Ford!


Etobicoke North: Julie Lutete (Liberal)


We've been clear from the start - Etobicoke North was always going to be our biggest challenge. Ford won in 2018 with more than 50% of the vote, meaning here, even uniting the vote would not, on its own, be enough. But Liberal candidate Julie Lutete is working hard to take Ford on in his own home turf - and she deserves our support to unite the vote behind her!

York Centre: Shelley Brown (Liberal)


York Centre was carried by Roman Baber in 2018, who has since been chased out of even the PCs for being too extreme. Now Ford seeks to hold onto this seat - but if we can unite the vote behind Shelley Brown, employment and human rights lawyer and founding member of Gilda's Club, we can keep Ford's PCs out of York Centre!


 

Our model incorporates a number of polling sources as well as historical data, campaign assets, candidate strengths, and more. To be clear: nobody can guarantee that they'll make the right call. But we have done all we can to assess as many factors as possible in making our decisions, and in particular, focusing on ridings where efforts to unite the vote can make the key difference.


We expect to make a few more endorsements over the next few days. But we will not be endorsing in ridings where there is no need because the PCs are viewed as not having a path to victory. In those ridings, if you'd like to play it safe, you can vote for the incumbent. And there are many great candidates running in those ridings! But our model predicts that the PCs are unlikely to pose a threat in the following ridings:


  • Beaches-East York

  • Davenport

  • Parkdale-High Park

  • Spadina-Fort York

  • Toronto Centre

  • Toronto Danforth

  • Toronto-St. Paul's

  • University-Rosedale


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